The Nile Question: The Accords on the Water of the Nile and Their Implications on

Some authorities identify the Nile basin as one of the hotspots in an area where violent conflict could break out over the shared water resource because of the various hydropolitical intricacies it involves. Mounting demands for more water, an alarming population growth rate, the absence of comprehensive legal and institutional frameworks, and relations among the riparian states that are marred with suspicion and misunderstanding, are among the major factors creating the potential for an extreme conflict in the basin. To date, the Basin states have not been able to cooperate in order to devise a solution to the issue of the Nile – the utilisation and management of Nile water for the benefit of all riparian states. One of the impediments to such a solution, is the absence of a basinwide agreement. Although there have been various agreements over the Nile River, none of these has involved more than three states. The accords constitute one of the hurdles in the path towards cooperation. This article reviews the main agreements which have decided control over the Nile, their traits, and the implications for cooperative schemes in the basin. It also examines the current promising initiative, the Nile Basin Initiative, as a possible way forward to reach comprehensive cooperation. The article does not examine all the problems enveloping the Nile basin. It limits itself to the legal aspects of the questions of the Nile and proposes appropriate approaches to accords on the water of the Nile. Further, it concentrates on three countries, Egypt, the Sudan and Ethiopia, which are considered to be central actors in the Nile issues and deals with the accords involving them, or concluded on their behalf, during the colonial period

TRANSBOUNDARY WATER COOPERATION IN AFRICA: THE CASE OF THE NILE BASIN INITIATIVE (NBI)

The aim of this paper is to identify the economic, social and political benefits of the transboundary cooperation by using the Nile Bain Initiative (NBI) as a case study. It also attempts to identify the obstacles that hinder transboundary cooperation in the Nile Basin. The paper argues that the riparian states in the Nile Basin should work for “benefit-sharing” rather than “water-sharing” and this should be the basis for the transboundary cooperation. It also claims that implementing the concept of benefit-sharing would help in solving problems that are caused by divergent interests among the riparian states in the Nile basin and the up stream-down stream problems frequently manifested in the area. The paper concludes by suggesting the main points that have to be considered in transboundary cooperation.“benefit-sharing”, Nile Basin Initiative, transboundary cooperation, “water-sharing.”

Impacts of global change on the Nile basin: Options for hydropolitical reform in Egypt and Ethiopia

This paper analyzes drivers of global change and their impacts on the current and future availability and accessibility of water resources in the Nile Basin. Drivers include changes in demography, climate, the socioeconomy, and politics, all of which are likely to increase the demand for freshwater and thus competition over its use across riparian countries. As a result of historic bilateral agreements, Egypt, as the most downstream country, uses the lion's share of the Nile's waters, which makes reallocation particularly difficult. Egypt is nearly totally dependent on water from upstream countries but considers any change of the status quo a threat to its national (water) security. Ninety-six percent of Egypt's water originates outside its territory—86 percent in Ethiopia. This paper assesses the special upstream–downstream relationship in the Nile Basin and the potential for change as a result of global change. It hypothesizes that under global change, not only will water availability in the Nile Basin change but so will the current hydropolitical situation in the basin. In any case, meeting the challenges in the Nile Basin depends on cooperation among countries and regulation of competing interests and demands. Avenues for hydropolitical reform, including the Nile Basin Initiative, and the role of China and other donors or investors are discussed. The findings—that global change might well bring down the old hydropolitical regime—are confirmed by recent developments, in particular, the signing by five upstream countries of a new framework agreement for management and development of the Nile Basin.Nile Basin, hydropolitics, Cooperation, Conflict, global change, Reform,

Summary of CPWF research in the Nile river basin

Three major river basins flow out of Ethiopia into Sudan, constituting the Eastern Nile basin (the White Nile flows from the south). These are the Tekeze-Atbara flowing out of northern Ethiopia, the Baro-Akoba- Sobat flowing from southern Ethiopia, and the Blue Nile (Abay) sandwiched between the other two. The Blue Nile Basin, called the Abay in Ethiopia, is the largest branch of the Nile draining the Ethiopian highlands. It covers an estimated area of 311,437 square kilometers and is shared by Ethiopia and Sudan. It joins the White Nile in Khartoum, Sudan. The Ethiopian highlands portion of the Blue Nile river basin was the focus of the Nile Basin Development Challenge under the Challenge Program on Water and Food

Analyzing runoff processes through conceptual hydrological modeling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Understanding runoff processes in a basin is of paramount importance for the effective planning and management of water resources, in particular in data-scarce regions such as the Upper Blue Nile. Hydrological models representing the underlying hydrological processes can predict river discharges from ungauged catchments and allow for an understanding of the rainfall-runoff processes in those catchments. In this paper, such a conceptual process-based hydrological model is developed and applied to the upper Gumara and Gilgel Abay catchments (both located within the Upper Blue Nile Basin, the Lake Tana sub-basin) to study the runoff mechanisms and rainfall-runoff processes in the basin. Topography is considered as a proxy for the variability of most of the catchment characteristics. We divided the catchments into different runoff production areas using topographic criteria. Impermeable surfaces (rock outcrops and hard soil pans, common in the Upper Blue Nile Basin) were considered separately in the conceptual model. Based on model results, it can be inferred that about 65% of the runoff appears in the form of interflow in the Gumara study catchment, and baseflow constitutes the larger proportion of runoff (44-48%) in the Gilgel Abay catchment. Direct runoff represents a smaller fraction of the runoff in both catchments (18-19% for the Gumara, and 20% for the Gilgel Abay) and most of this direct runoff is generated through infiltration excess runoff mechanism from the impermeable rocks or hard soil pans. The study reveals that the hillslopes are recharge areas (sources of interflow and deep percolation) and direct runoff as saturated excess flow prevails from the flat slope areas. Overall, the model study suggests that identifying the catchments into different runoff production areas based on topography and including the impermeable rocky areas separately in the modeling process mimics the rainfall-runoff process in the Upper Blue Nile Basin well and yields a useful result for operational management of water resources in this data-scarce region

Assessing household vulnerability to climate change: The case of farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Vulnerability to climate extremes, Nile Basin of Ethiopia, Minimum daily income, Climate change,

Governing the Nile Under Climatic Uncertainty: The Need for a Climate-Proof Basin-Wide Treaty

This article examines treaty flexibility and climate change adaptation in the context of the Nile Basin. The Nile Basin is the focus of a voluminous body of academic literature, but there are gaps in the literature regarding the legal regimes of the Nile. Political scientists have extensively studied the role of power dynamics and hydro-hegemony in their effort to determine “who gets how much [of the Nile] water, when, where and why?” Peace and Security scholars have also addressed the issue of whether the Nile River will be a source of conflict or a catalyst for cooperation. Legal scholars, on the other hand, have explored some of the substantive issues concerning the fragmented legal regimes governing the Nile watercourse. Still absent, however, is both a detailed analysis of treaty flexibility in the Nile Basin and a proposal for building a basin-wide, climate-proof treat

Blue Nile Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change

This study describes implementation of hydrological climate change impact assessment tool utilising a combination of statistical spatiotemporal downscaling and an operational hydrological model known as the Nile Forecasting System. A spatial rainfall generator was used to produce high-resolution (daily, 20km) gridded rainfall data required by the distributed hydrological model from monthly GCM outputs. The combined system was used to assess the sensitivity of upper Blue Nile flows at Diem flow gauging station to changes in future rainfall during the June-September rainy season based on output from three GCMs. The assessment also incorporated future evapotranspiration changes over the basin. The climate change scenarios derived in this study were broadly in line with other studies, with the majority of scenarios indicating wetter conditions in the future. Translating the impacts into runoff in the basin showed increased future mean flows, although these would be offset to some degree by rising evapotranspiration. Impacts on extreme runoff indicated the possibility of more severe floods in future. These are likely to be exacerbated by land-use changes including overgrazing, deforestation, and improper farming practices. Blue Nile basin flood managers therefore need to continue to prepare for the possibility of more frequent floods by adopting a range of measures to minimise loss of life and guard against other flood damage

Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Climate change / Hydrology / River basins / Runoff / Precipitation / Models / Dams / Operating policies / Water power / Drought / Analysis / Africa / Ethiopia / Egypt / Sudan / Upper Blue Nile River Basin

Using the water-energy-food nexus to enhance Egypt’s cooperation with Nile Basin countries

In the coming decades, the World will be facing severe challenges in terms of water, energy and food through increased water use, increased energy demand and increased food demand and shifting diets. Those challenges are foreseen to be amplified due to climate change effects. Egypt is a country struggling to achieve water, energy and food security, which are key issues in achieving national security. Egypt is facing another major challenge regarding its main water resource Nile River. Ethiopia is currently undergoing the construction of a huge dam on the Blue Nile which is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The purpose of the research is to attempt to mitigate the effect of the GERD on Egypt through cooperation with the Nile Basin countries on their Water-Energy-Food Nexus (WEF Nexus). The grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam (GERD) is a mega hydro-electric project currently under construction on the Blue Nile. It is planned to have a 74 BCM capacity reservoir and a power generation capacity of 6,000 MW. If not agreed appropriately, the filling of the GERD reservoir might have significant impacts on the Aswan High Dam. A policy framework was developed for the water-energy-food nexus for Egypt and the Nile Basin. In Egypt, it is suggested to create a Supreme Council for Water, Energy and Food which includes all the relevant ministries. For the Nile Basin, a Nile Basin WEF is suggested, whose decisions should be legally binding for Nile Basin countries. Examples were provided on the project/programme level that could have benefited from the WEF synergy, like the reclamation of 1.5 million feddans and the expansion of the electricity generation sector. An institutional arrangement was developed, which is applicable for Egypt and the Nile Basin countries. The arrangement is done through a methodology which encourages the prioritization of projects that take into consideration the WEF nexus. On the Nile Basin level, examples were given for potential projects that could benefit from the WEF synergy if the basin is thought of as one unit. Examples provided included the expansion of green water utilization and integration of electricity grids. The policy framework showed that the GERD itself can be viewed as an opportunity for cooperation if the right policy framework is developed among the basin countries